Warfare between states has undergone a continuous evolution; from first, second and third generation warfare which comprised traditional combat, to the fourth generation characterised by the growing involvement of non-state actors like terrorist groups, through to the fifth and current generation (5GW) driven by the digital age and a ubiquitous battlefield…
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Richard Gardiner and Saif Islam explore the subtle implications for Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.
Asees Bajaj unpacks the drivers of geopolitical tensions and the complexities underlining global power dynamics, zooming in on what they mean for business in 2023.
Wrongful detention continues to be a threat for foreign nationals travelling to high-risk jurisdictions. Richard Gardiner discusses the politics behind the practice and assesses who faces the greatest threat of being wrongfully detained.
Russia’s close ally Kazakhstan’s neutral stance on the invasion of Ukraine is strictly driven by its national interests, but any deterioration in relations with Russia could have implications for Kazakhstan’s political stability in the longer term, writes Saif Islam.
Amid rising energy costs and inflation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, Europe now faces the added challenge of the continent’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War 2. Richard Gardiner writes that these pressures, and the associated escalation in the cost of living, could drive sustained civil unrest in Europe in the coming year.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has taken longer than Russian President Vladimir Putin expected. Amid a prolonged conflict, Gabrielle Reid and Markus Korhonen examine the widespread shocks across various industries likely to have a long-lasting impact on the global economy.
The arrests of Canadian businessman Michael Spavor and former diplomat Michael Kovrig in China in December 2018, just days after Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou’s arrest in Vancouver, were undoubtedly linked. Despite China’s espionage allegations against the pair and their subsequent convictions, they were released shortly after Meng was…
An increase in terrorism-related incidents in 2020 may indicate, at face value, an increase in militant activity in Russia, but the reality is more complex, writes Saif Islam.
Russia’s apparent reduced willingness to pursue military options in its neighbourhood suggests a shift in how it conducts its foreign policy. Cvete Koneska argues that this should not be read as a sign of Russia in retreat; instead, we can expect Russia to employ a more diverse toolbox to achieve its foreign policy objectives.
Many organised crime groups in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) continued their kidnapping and extortion activities largely unaffected by the Covid-19 pandemic, writes Darren Davids. However, opportunistic criminals have capitalised on newly implemented Covid-19 restrictions and will seek to extort travellers.
Paul Whelan’s arrest and subsequent conviction for espionage in Russia has raised concerns over the use of detention as a tool for political manoeuvring on the international arena. Cvete Koneska argues that Russia’s recent record suggests foreign nationals visiting the country will face a growing risk of wrongful detention.